Thursday, January 31, 2008

Updating the primaries & cauci

As you are aware, next Tuesday is what's referred to as "Super Tuesday" in the political world. This is the day when donkeys & elephants gather together at pre-determined locations in 24 states to declare their uncompromising loyalty to someone they've never met, and who makes a living out of lying to the camera. You can imagine, I'm pretty thrilled to follow the action - so thrilled that I may decide to skip work just to watch the action on television.

In the spirit of providing really awesome maps of the proceedings, I've created a fantastic follow-up map to yesterday's prediction map. Today, we look at where we are - which candidates have won each caucus or primary, and how would they look with their giant heads floating above those states. I hope you enjoy!

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Handicapping the 2008 election

We periodically enjoy handicapping the election. Now seems like as good a time as ever to get it started, as we're less than a week away from "Super Tuesday!" Below, you'll see a variety of numbers and words, followed by a really cool map. If you really like the maps, please offer me a six-figure salaried job and I'll then tell your lies and truth stretchings with high quality map products.

note: we have narrowed the field down to viable candidates Hillary, Barack, Johnny, and Mitt

Likelihood of each candidate to reach the general election:
Johnny - 80%
Barack - 60%
Hillary - 40%
Mitt - 20%

Likelihood of each candidate to beat each potential general election opponent:
Johnny over Hillary - 75% (25%)
Barack over Johnny - 85% (15%)
Barack over Mitt - 90% (10%)
Hillary vs. Mitt - 50% (50%)

Likelihood that each candidate will be elected in November:
Barack - 51.6%
Johnny - 31.2%
Hillary - 12.0%
Mitt - 5.2%

Proposed betting odds* for each candidate:
Barack - 1:1
Johnny - 3:1
Hillary - 7:1
Mitt - 20:1
* This is not an actual betting opportunity, as we have no money to back it up

The following map and associated Electoral College projections are based on the numbers above, accounting for the various combinations. It simply shows the projected party that each state will align with. I don't consider Nebraska or Maine real states, so their split votes are being ignored.


Associated Electoral College votes:
Democratic Candidate - 248 (19 states, one district)
Republican Candidate - 216 (24 states)
Too close to project - 74 (7 states)
Electoral College votes needed to win - 270

Projected "swing" states:
Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

The Sun City King of the Florida Republican Primary

Last Thursday, Senator John McCain and wife, Cindy, hopped on board their brand spankin' new custom RV, and drove from their winter home in Sun City West, Arizona across Interstate 10 to Florida, where they set up camp with good friends Pam and Pat Prescott, in Sun City Center, Florida. Along the way, Johnny ate seven meals at Cracker Barrel, obliviously ran twelve Honda Civics off the road (including two hybrids in a ten minute span near San Antonio), and used the on board facilities three-hundred and seventy-two times (over one hundred in Texas alone).

The long journey was worth it, as he watched the results come in during a late 5:00 dinner at the local Bob Evans, with dozens of his supporters. He picked up a key endorsement along the way, as former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani plans to drop out of the presidential race and to then endorse Johnny. Coincidentally, Rudy was at his new home over at the corner of Del Webb Blvd and Del Webb Ave during the festivities, and is reported to be positioning himself for the Vice Presidential nomination. He could not be reached for comment as he was busy having his lawyer draft divorce papers.

In related news, Senator Hillary Clinton ran away with the castrated Florida Democratic Primary, earning an astounding zero delegates for this summer's Democratic National Convention. Upon seeing television coverage of Hillary's victory, local 9-hole par three course record-holder Jean Walton turned to her husband and said, "Isn't that Fred Steinberg's new girlfriend? I think her name is Marjorie. I can't believe he's dating someone so much younger than him. Patsy told me that she heard from Jerri that Marjorie knows her way around a buffet, if you know what I mean." Milton Walton then stuttered half under his breath, "for pete's sake woman, do you ever stop talking? That's not Marjorie. That's Hillary Clinton. The former president's wife. For Fred's sake I wish it was, because Marjorie is a horse." "What, honey? Did you say something?," retorted Jean quizzically.

During his victory speech, Johnny stated boisterously, "Tonight, my friends, we celebrate. Tomorrow, it's back to lawn bowling and involuntary mid-conversational naps."

Monday, January 28, 2008

2008 State of the Union Address: democrapublican response

This is the twelfth consecutive year, and twenty-seventh overall, that I will share my reactions to the State of the Union Address. It has been long rumored that the late Peter Jennings would wait to read the democrapublican response before going on camera to offer any observations. You'll soon understand his reliance.

- This year, the TelePrompTer was operated by White House AV Club Vice President, Jeffrey Singleton, formerly the President of the AV Club at Mallard Creek High School in Charlotte, North Carolina. Go Mavericks! Way to represent, Jeffrey!

- President Bush wants the United States to reduce its dependence on oil. In an effort to expedite the process, George has flown Air Force One (yes, he's a pilot) to Riyadh sixteen times to meet personally with Sultan bin Abdul Aziz, the Saudi Crown Prince, attempting to determine whether or not there are any abundant Middle Eastern resources that may be used as alternative fuel sources. The leading possibilities right now are: palm oil, gold, silver, myrrh, and harnessing the latent heat of sand. In a rare improvisational moment, George shared the details of an exchange between the two leaders: "So, I said, 'Princy,' I call him Princy. I said, 'Princy, you seen the cost of a barrel of oil lately? Pretty outrageous?' 'Yes, George,' Princy said, 'I knew it must be so when my driver pulled up in a Rolls to drive me from my yacht's fifth level sun deck to dinner at the Four Seasons located next to the Virgin Room behind the bridge. Apparently, they replaced the entire yacht automobile fleet!' I just about died laughing, 'cause I remember those cramped Mercedes sedans they used to shuttle us in."

- Reaffirmed commitment to work towards reversing the growth of greenhouse gasses. Prediction: next year's Academy Award winning film-inspired action will be to remove all coinage from circulation, in order to limit the spread of Javier Bardem, friend-o.

- About Iraq, Bush laid the groundwork for a potential early fall 2008 invasion of Baghdad. The idea harkens back to the glory days of 2003 when the vast liberal media conspiracy vastly and liberally mediated their conspiratorial news stories by parroting the administration's foreign policy verbatim, in fact directly from the talking points distributed at the 1600 P.A. lemonade stand by Scooter Libby.

- Promised to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by December 2008. He then started to re-tell his Sultan bin Abdul Aziz story, before Jeffrey got his attention and focused him back on the TelePrompTer.

If I seem sardonic in this post, it's just because my stomach is upset. Actually, I missed most of the speech as a result. By "most," I mean "all." But, I do sincerely apologize if I come across as skeptical.

In summary, I found the speech to be inspiring, the President to be more handsome than ever, and could not be more thrilled to see 2008 play out in America. I didn't even mind having to wait longer than usual for the American Idol auditions. Had I watched the speech, I feel certain that I would be even more thrilled.

Sunday, January 27, 2008

"Donkeys are really nice"

Five year-old reading "colors" book to one year-old.

Five year-old turns to "brown" page.

Five year-old points to brown donkey, states matter-of-factly, "Brown Donkey. Donkeys are really nice!"

True story.

Brilliant five year-old.

Me <-- Really proud Pa.

Friday, January 25, 2008

Perissodactylae

I recently realized that I am very uninformed when it comes to the donkey's family. It's not that I've completely ignored opportunities for zooligical learning in my lifetime, it's simply that I haven't paid much attention when those opportunities were placed in front of me. So I googled the donkey on Wikipedia. In learning myself on the donkey's family, I realized that my readership would likely also like to be learned on the subject. Now, I proceed.

The donkey is a member of the order Perissodactyla, more commonly referred to as odd-toed ungulates. I'm sure that your reaction is as mine was, that the collective number of toes on the animal must equate to an odd number. That, or my alternate theory, that their toes are simply odd-shapen. But, you're wrong. In fact, they're referred to as odd-toed because they have an odd number of toes on each individual hoof. For instance, 1. Perhaps, 5. More commonly, 3. Assuming your neighborhood perissodactyl has four legs, as is apparently common among land mammals, you can perform the simple math and come to the conclusion that he or she has an even number of toes, likely 12 (donkeys have 4). And, like me, you're thinking that they should really be called even-toed ungulates, because who cares about each individual hoof - I'm concerned with the whole of the being. But, apparently there are other ungulates that are referred to as even-toed ungulates, which means that ungulates like ours cannot be called even-toed ungulates, and that they must inaccurately be labeled as odd-toed ungulates. Don't get me started on labels. Are you following me?

Perhaps the more interesting identifying characteristic of perissodactylae is in their tummies. Instead of digesting plant cellulose in their stomachs, they digest plant cellulose in their intestines. In other words, they are hindgut fermenters. Other ungulates, like cows and hippos, are foregut fermenters. I don't know what all of this means, but I think it has something to do with how they make doo doo.

There's a bunch of other stuff on the Wikipedia page about their development, their habitats, their dead ancestors, their social structures, their dominant characteristics, but I suspect that if I wrote it your mind would be wandering by the end. Instead, I'll simply list them, and include some cool pictures.

The following perissodactylae are from the suborder Hippomorpha. I know what you're thinking - "pictures of hippos!" But, get this: the suborder Hippomorpha does not include hippopotamuses. "How did it get its name," you ask? No clue.

Perissodactyla hippomorpha:
- Przewalski's Horse
- Domestic, or Wild, Horse
- Donkey, or African Ass
- Onager, or Asiatic Ass (not to be confused with the post-classical Roman siege engine, though the latter is the namesake of the former)
- Kiang, or Tibetan Wild Ass
- Plains Zebra
- Cape Mountain Zebra
- Hartmann's Mountain Zebra
- Grevy's Zebra

Have you heard the rumor that Mr. Ed was actually played by a zebra, but that the color distinction wasn't apparent to the end viewer because the show was filmed in panchromatic tones? It's not true, I just wondered if you've heard it.


Onager, resting on dirt

The rest of the perissodactylae are from the suborder Ceratomorpha, and either the family Tapiridae or Rhinocerotidae. I'll let you figure out which is which.

Perissodactyla ceratomorpha:
- Brazilian Tapir
- Mountain Tapir
- Baird's Tapir
- Malayan Tapir
- Black Rhinoceros
- White Rhinoceros
- Indian Rhinoceros
- Javan Rhinoceros
- Sumatran Rhinoceros


Javan Rhinoceros, chewing

A few important words about perissodactylae doo doo:

As I mentioned earlier, the perissodactylae are distinguishable from other ungulates by their hindgut fermenters. Once their food has been digested, it "is stored in a pouch-like extension of the small intestines called the caecum." Did you know that you likely have a caecum? Yes sir, yes sir, the human caecum is adjacent to the appendix. Of course, the appendix is the organ that has the important function of funding your surgeon's kid's apartment rent payments while they're studying at Brown. But, I digest. The caecum in herbivores, such as our friends the perissodactylae, are rather large, and host a number of bacteria. These "bacteria aid in the enzymatic breakdown of plant materials," such as stems and petals and bark. Later on, doo doo appears.

All information and quotes attributable directly to Wikipedia, then to a variety of other sources which may or may not be identified on said Wikipedia pages.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Bill Clinton, mouthy broad

When it comes to former Presidents of the United States of America, Bill is clearly the youngest one living. At the relatively young age of 61, Bill is more than 22 years younger than his immediate predecessor, George the Elder.

That's all well and good, but does that in itself qualify him to place himself in the middle of the 2008 election cycle? I think so. In fact, when you combine that with his new post-heart surgery
gaunt look, and his beautifully formed coif of white hair, I can think of no other person that I would want to see whoring himself for camera time in the name of his presidential bid. By that I mean his wife Hillary's presidential bid, of course.

While I always enjoy seeing Bill in front of the microphones slamming his (Hillary's) political opponents, I particularly enjoy seeing Bill in front of the microphones slamming Barack. It seems that every time he opens his mouth on camera, he's either telling reporters how terrible Barack is, or telling them that instead of conducting this interview, they should be covering how terrible Barack is. Sometimes, he goes to college campuses and tells students (on camera) that they should demand that the media tell them more about how terrible Barack is. In fact, I was watching an old Saturday Night Live episode from the early 90s, and there was Phil Hartman as Bill in a debate with Dana Carvey as Church Lady, and Bill was telling Church Lady that if he were elected, he would demand changes in media practices to include telling the American people how terrible Barack is. As Bill apparently sees it, there is nothing more pressing for the media to focus on than Barack, and his terrible ... terribilit ... terriblenes ... and how terrible he is.

This brings us to yesterday. Bill was busy campaigning on the coast of South Carolina, when a reporter asked him a question that had nothing to do with how terrible Barack is. As anyone would, Bill took offense to the question, and answered with the following
tirade:

"They're feeding you this because this is what you want to cover; this is what you live for, but this hurts the people of South Carolina. What you care about is this and the Obama people know that, so they spin you up on this and you happily go along. The people don't care about this. They never ask about it. And you are determined to take this election away from them. One more story. Shame on you. Shame on you."
- Bill, January 23, 2008


As Anderson Cooper Vanderbilt succinctly stated last night, "... the Obama campaign is the only one playing the spin game ..." (paraphrasing). And, he's right, the Barack campaign is the only one playing the spin game. While the media continues to take its cues from Barack, nobody is being told how terrible Barack is.


I look forward to a day when the media returns its focus to what is really important: how terrible Bill thinks Barack is.