Handicapping the 2008 election

We periodically enjoy handicapping the election. Now seems like as good a time as ever to get it started, as we're less than a week away from "Super Tuesday!" Below, you'll see a variety of numbers and words, followed by a really cool map. If you really like the maps, please offer me a six-figure salaried job and I'll then tell your lies and truth stretchings with high quality map products.

note: we have narrowed the field down to viable candidates Hillary, Barack, Johnny, and Mitt

Likelihood of each candidate to reach the general election:
Johnny - 80%
Barack - 60%
Hillary - 40%
Mitt - 20%

Likelihood of each candidate to beat each potential general election opponent:
Johnny over Hillary - 75% (25%)
Barack over Johnny - 85% (15%)
Barack over Mitt - 90% (10%)
Hillary vs. Mitt - 50% (50%)

Likelihood that each candidate will be elected in November:
Barack - 51.6%
Johnny - 31.2%
Hillary - 12.0%
Mitt - 5.2%

Proposed betting odds* for each candidate:
Barack - 1:1
Johnny - 3:1
Hillary - 7:1
Mitt - 20:1
* This is not an actual betting opportunity, as we have no money to back it up

The following map and associated Electoral College projections are based on the numbers above, accounting for the various combinations. It simply shows the projected party that each state will align with. I don't consider Nebraska or Maine real states, so their split votes are being ignored.

click for full version

Associated Electoral College votes:
Democratic Candidate - 248 (19 states, one district)
Republican Candidate - 216 (24 states)
Too close to project - 74 (7 states)
Electoral College votes needed to win - 270

Projected "swing" states:
Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio