Limbaugh and Coulter simultaneously read on-air statements directly from the talking points memo, stating that "The endorsements of Bush and Romney do not reflect the beliefs of true conservatives. True conservatives are people who are in one-hundred percent lock-step agreement with the entirety of beliefs expressed by the true conservative arm of the Republican party, as expressed in our books, radio shows, and unfortunate television appearances. Although, if you think we're ugly, watch that James Carville sometime. Dear God. Trust me, my unparalleled crack research team backs this up by diligently and exhaustively comparing notes with (Ann/Rush)'s people. Don't be swept up by Johnny fever, as we need to continue threatening to vote for Hillary as long as there's a small bit of hope for a Huckabee nomination. When that hope is doused, we'll be certain to jump off the Hillary bandwagon, in favor of spreading stories about the legendary back stage orgies that Obama and the Clintons host after each debate, and of course Hillary's traitorous actions while piloting wiki boats in Vietnam as corroborated by numerous highly-paid wiki boat vets."
Monday, February 18, 2008
Prominent Republicans endorse Prominent Republican
Limbaugh and Coulter simultaneously read on-air statements directly from the talking points memo, stating that "The endorsements of Bush and Romney do not reflect the beliefs of true conservatives. True conservatives are people who are in one-hundred percent lock-step agreement with the entirety of beliefs expressed by the true conservative arm of the Republican party, as expressed in our books, radio shows, and unfortunate television appearances. Although, if you think we're ugly, watch that James Carville sometime. Dear God. Trust me, my unparalleled crack research team backs this up by diligently and exhaustively comparing notes with (Ann/Rush)'s people. Don't be swept up by Johnny fever, as we need to continue threatening to vote for Hillary as long as there's a small bit of hope for a Huckabee nomination. When that hope is doused, we'll be certain to jump off the Hillary bandwagon, in favor of spreading stories about the legendary back stage orgies that Obama and the Clintons host after each debate, and of course Hillary's traitorous actions while piloting wiki boats in Vietnam as corroborated by numerous highly-paid wiki boat vets."
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Obama campaign raises $7.2 million in 36 hours
When asked to comment, Bill Gates indicated that he will make matching donations to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for all of the money that Barack collects. He went on to state that "Barack is a fund-raising machine. He is on pace to obliterate the campaign contribution records set by George Bush, and shortly thereafter will be able to buy and sell God. But, I have several orders of magnitude more money lying around in my underwear drawer that I can spare for a good cause, so I thought this was a good opportunity to distribute more of my freakish wealth."
Campaign finance reform mouthpiece John McCain stated that "it's unthinkable that someone could raise tens of millions of dollars, only to spend those dollars on an election. We've truly come to a place in this country where elections can be bought, and this scares me. If and when I buy the Presidency this November, I will make further campaign finance reform my first priority. And, you can help put me there by making a personal donation of up to $2,000 immediately. If we can raise an additional $40 million by March, this will put us above the $80 million mark and should go a long way in ensuring that we can compete with the Obama campaign and the $780 million budget that they're expected to have at that point. I thank my supporters for their deep pockets, and really wish I had rich & spendy Hollywood types supporting me, too."
Mitt Romney suspends campaign
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Super Tuesday 2008: results against predictions
Running tally:
Correct donkey picks/total called: 11/21^
Correct elephant picks/total called: 14/21*
*West Virginia is effectively a win for Johnny
^New Mexico has not been called
Alabama -
Predicted winners: Barack, Johnny
Actual winners: Barack, Mike
Commentary (7:44PM): Another southern victory for Barack.
Commentary (8:33PM): Mike is sure strong in the deep South. I should be more in tune with the Alabama voter.
Alaska -
Predicted winners: Hillary, Mitt
Actual winners: Barack, Mitt
Arizona -
Predicted winners: Barack, Johnny
Actual winners: Hillary, Johnny
Commentary (8:42PM): The Sun City contingent comes through again for Big Johnny.
Commentary (10:16PM): Another nice win for Hillary. It all comes down to California. Either way, the donkey race is still very much in play.
Arkansas -
Predicted winners: Hillary, Mike
Actual winners: Hillary, Mike
Commentary (7:38PM): It sure pays to have two home states, as the Clintons are finding out.
Commentary (7:45PM): Mike sorely needs a few more home states to claim.
California -
Predicted winners: Barack, Johnny
Actual winners: Hillary, Johnny
Commentary (10:26PM): Biggest single win of the night so far. Not the nail in the coffin for Barack, but the momentum stopper that Hillary needed, to be sure. Only thing bigger than this would be a Johnny win in Cali, as that would be the nail in the coffin.
Commentary (10:27PM): Oh, wait, Johnny got a win in Cali. Hammer meet nail meet Republican Presidential Nominee Johnny Mac.
Colorado -
Predicted winners: Barack, Johnny
Actual winners: Barack, Mitt
Connecticut -
Predicted winners: Hillary, Mitt
Actual winners: Barack, Johnny
Commentary (7:46PM): My first real incorrect pick (discounting the "fixed" West Virginia win for Johnny) on the elephant side comes in New England. Those enigmatic Connecticut republicans!!
Commentary (8:26PM): This win almost counters the New Jersey win for Hillary. California is enormous for Barack, but he should be able to retain relevance regardless of the outcome there. Those enigmatic Connecticut democrats!!
Delaware:
Predicted winners: Barack, Johnny
Actual winners: Barack, Johnny
Commentary (7:38PM): Johnny takes the every-important Delaware primary, with two a's and two e's.
Georgia -
Predicted winners: Barack, Johnny
Actual winners: Barack, Mike
Commentary (7:53PM): The question now becomes, does Barack have the potential to steal southern states in a general election? Doubtful, but Georgia seems as good a candidate as any.
Commentary (9:31PM): More love for Mikey in the South, and he likes it.
Idaho -
Predicted winners: Barack
Actual winners: Barack
Illinois -
Predicted winners: Barack, Johnny
Actual winners: Barack, Johnny
Commentary (7:55PM): Hillary could claim a third home state in any other election, but Barack-fever has overtaken this midwestern swing state and Barack solidly wins, as expected. Johnny has the big "mo".
Kansas -
Predicted winner: Barack
Actual winner: Barack
Massachusetts -
Predicted winners: Hillary, Mitt
Actual winners: Hillary, Mitt
Commentary (7:51PM): Paper tiger, is old Mass. Very predictable, here and in November. Mitt, home state or not, you'll be abandoned - of course, that's assuming you can even get to November, which you can't. At least not on top of a ticket.
Minnesota -
Predicted winners: Hillary, Johnny
Actual winners: Barack, Mitt
Commentary (8:34PM): Nice midwestern win for Barack. Never hurts to have the Mall of America constituents.
Commentary (9:29PM): Mitt's trying to hang in there. Not convinced that he can.
Missouri -
Predicted winners: Hillary, Johnny
Actual winners: Barack, Johnny
Commentary (7:50AM): As the festivities wrapped up, it was clear that the day was a virtual tie between Hillary & Barack. My only real surprise was that Barack hadn't narrowed the California gap a little more - but Hillary has long had the edge there.
Montana -
Predicted winner: Johnny
Actual winner: Mitt
Commentary (10:17PM): An enormous, momentum-turning victory for Mitt in Big Sky country. I'm certain Mitt was prepared to concede, before hearing about the Montana result which surely spurred his confidence.
New Jersey -
Predicted winners: Barack, Johnny
Actual winners: Hillary, Johnny
Commentary (7:40PM): This is a big win for Johnny, in all seriousness. He has crazy momentum right now, and might end the Republican nominational race tonight.
Commentary (7:56PM): The win in New Jersey solidifies that tonight will not be disastrous for the former First Lady. A loss here could have signalled trouble ahead, but at worst she'll be in a dog-fight after tonight's outcomes. Holding on strong in the northeast, where mouthy broads reign supreme!
New Mexico -
Predicted winner: Barack
Actual winner: Barack leads currently, not called yet by CNN
New York -
Predicted winners: Hillary, Johnny
Actual winners: Hillary, Johnny
Commentary (7:40PM): Hillary won, as expected, in her other home state. Johnny gets another big one.
North Dakota -
Predicted winners: Hillary, Mitt
Actual winners: Barack, Mitt
Commentary (8:10PM): My first miss that goes towards the Barack camp. Somehow, I imagine New Jersey is more exciting to win than North Dakota.
Oklahoma -
Predicted winners: Barack, Johnny
Actual winners: Hillary, Johnny
Commentary (7:55PM): God help us if Hillary breaks out into Rodgers & Hammerstein fare!!
Tennessee -
Predicted winners: Barack, Johnny
Actual winners: Hillary, Mike
Commentary (7:42PM): Daddy's on a losing streak, underestimating the Senator from New York. Tennessee's a nice win.
Utah -
Predicted winners: Barack, Mitt
Actual winners: Barack, Mitt
Commentary (8:07PM): Shockingly, Utah is even more predictable than Massachusetts!
West Virginia -
Predicted winners: Johnny
Actual winners: Mike
Commentary (2:46 PM): Even though Mike "technically" won, and Johnny only received 1% of the vote, Johnny is the real winner in West Virginia as I expected all along. It was his supporters who pushed Mike over the top, and kept all of those critical West Virginia delegates from voting for Mitt.
Source: CNN
Super Tuesday 2008: state by state analysis
proclamation by
a democrapublican
at
10:00 AM
0
kudo(s)
word association: awesome maps, barack, donkeys, elephants, Hillary, Johnny, Mike, Mitt, primaries, serious thoughts, things i have tought you
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Handicapping the 2008 election
note: we have narrowed the field down to viable candidates Hillary, Barack, Johnny, and Mitt
Likelihood of each candidate to reach the general election:
Johnny - 80%
Barack - 60%
Hillary - 40%
Mitt - 20%
Likelihood of each candidate to beat each potential general election opponent:
Johnny over Hillary - 75% (25%)
Barack over Johnny - 85% (15%)
Barack over Mitt - 90% (10%)
Hillary vs. Mitt - 50% (50%)
Likelihood that each candidate will be elected in November:
Barack - 51.6%
Johnny - 31.2%
Hillary - 12.0%
Mitt - 5.2%
Proposed betting odds* for each candidate:
Barack - 1:1
Johnny - 3:1
Hillary - 7:1
Mitt - 20:1
* This is not an actual betting opportunity, as we have no money to back it up
The following map and associated Electoral College projections are based on the numbers above, accounting for the various combinations. It simply shows the projected party that each state will align with. I don't consider Nebraska or Maine real states, so their split votes are being ignored.
Associated Electoral College votes:
Democratic Candidate - 248 (19 states, one district)
Republican Candidate - 216 (24 states)
Too close to project - 74 (7 states)
Electoral College votes needed to win - 270
Projected "swing" states:
Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio
proclamation by
a democrapublican
at
5:18 PM
1 kudo(s)
word association: awesome maps, barack, donkeys, elephants, Hillary, Johnny, Mitt, parties, primaries, serious thoughts, things i have tought you
Friday, January 18, 2008
A preview of South Carolina
1. South Carolina Primary - Elephants
I'm clueless. I can't read the people of South Carolina, which is kinda ironic. But, what I know is this: Ken Huckabee is a lock to lead the South Carolina Primary until the 11th hour. At the 11th hour, as Rudy and Mitt enjoy a burlesque show together in Vegas, Huckabee will watch in a helpless stupor as the Diebolds take a huge swing westward. Johnny snatches victory from the jaws of irrelevance, and leaves South Carolina with an enormous weekend sweep of the South Carolina Primary and the New Mexico Caucuses.

2. South Carolina Primary - Donkeys
Much more interesting than the baby elephant walk the Saturday before, Columbia will be enthralled by the goings on in the donkey primary. Will the South Carolina people support a mouthy broad? What about a sorta black dude? Or, a short, politically irrelevant guy? Or, will they stick with my first instinct and go with John E. from the cooler Carolina? As the day unfolds, it is clear that this one is going down to the wire. The second weekend of the tournament is clearly going to be more interesting than the first. John E. generally holds small leads throughout, while Hillary and Barack duke it out to see if either can challenge him. As the day winds down, it becomes apparent that Edwards is the soup du jour, and that Barack will leave with a solid #2 finish. Until Hillary pulls up from the top of the key and her shot nestles into the net. On the subsequent possession, Barack trips over Dennis while trying to pass the ball up court to John E., and Hillary takes it away - along with the lead, as her three pointer from the elbow bounces off the rim, the backboard, and the rim again before falling through. She ices the game from the free throw line, and ends up with a strong 13 point victory in South Carolina. Let the inauguration planning commence.
A preview of Nevada
In fact, I have been dubbed the "Joe Lunardi of Presidential Primary Madness." In the spirit of that dubbing, I have created "game trackers" for this weekend's South Carolina primary and Nevada caucus. You'll see in them shifts in momentum, underdogs giving favorites a run for their money, and you'll know exactly when Hillary hits those back-to-back three pointers to put the proverbial nail in the South Carolina coffin. But, we'll start with Nevada.
Early Vegas betting lines have Rudy and Mitt neck and neck in the race. Early Vegas betting lines don't play the games though, and as you'll see, Rudy quickly is exposed for the fraud 4 seed that he is. Underdog Ken Huckabee actually plays him closely for much of the day, before breaking away to steal third place by two percentage points. More fascinating is the race between Mitt and Johnny. Mitt, with his enormous size advantage, jumps out to an early lead on the strength of his post play. As the day wears on, however, political elite underdog favorite Johnny starts to assert himself, and makes one final push to steal the day with 27% of the vote. Caucus members look cross-eyed at each other, trying to figure out what exactly happened, but they begrudgingly cross Mitt's name off their brackets and replace him with Johnny.
Nevada Caucus - Donkeys:
If you think the action was heated in the Nevada Pod, wait until you see what happens in South Carolina!!


