Showing posts with label Mitt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mitt. Show all posts

Monday, February 18, 2008

Prominent Republicans endorse Prominent Republican

Despite heartache amongs the pro-Clinton, pro-Obama conservative talking head crowd, including hopped-up-on-Oxycontin Rush Limbaugh and hopped-up-on-testosterone Ann Coulter and hopped-up-on-a-bully-pulpit Jim Dobson, several prominent conservative Republicans have recently announced their endorsement of pending Republican Presidential nominee John McCain.

Mitt Romney's famed anti-surrender-to-terror position is well-documented, but he further reinforced his commitment to a McCain Presidency (and the underlying Romney Vice Presidency) by stating his opposition to former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. Said Romney, "I like Mike Huckabee as a person. He has some interesting viewpoints, and we certainly have idealogical similarities. But, I cannot endorse his position of surrendering to terror by laying down our weapons and approaching the evil Muslims with bibles and love instead. He has this warped view of Jesus as a turn-the-other-cheek pansy, but I know that Jesus was really an ain't-nobody's-bitch-motha who annihilated civilizations that dared to challenge him. Like Jesus and Johnny, I'm all for mowing down anybody who reacts angrily to our mis-placed hostile occupation and nation building effort in Iraq, even though it will take 100 years. We're coming after you first, you French custard-filled pastries!
"

Former President George H. W. Bush (the Elder) has similarly endorsed Johnny, but for perhaps different reasons. During a candid interview from the Kennebunkeport Harbor office, George the Elder summarized his endorsement as follows: "Honestly, I'm a long-time conservative Republican, going back well before my days in the public eye as Reagan's strong arm, and even before my years of undermining American principles by working intelligence deals in the Middle East that would make your toe-hair curl. As such, I clearly can't support anti-American candidates such as Hillary Clinton and that crazy muslim Barack Obama. Trust me, I only endorse crazy muslims that can make me ridiculously wealthy, and Obama does not fit that bill. Moreover, it's time for change. While you people have been dealing with this incompetent buffoon for seven years now, I've had to apologize for him his entire life. He has some deep-seeded need for my approval, and that bothers me. McCain is just what we need - a straight shooter, someone who can think for himself, someone who doesn't need my approval, and someone who is not our current president."

Limbaugh and Coulter simultaneously read on-air statements directly from the talking points memo, stating that "The endorsements of Bush and Romney do not reflect the beliefs of true conservatives. True conservatives are people who are in one-hundred percent lock-step agreement with the entirety of beliefs expressed by the true conservative arm of the Republican party, as expressed in our books, radio shows, and unfortunate television appearances. Although, if you think we're ugly, watch that James Carville sometime. Dear God. Trust me, my unparalleled crack research team backs this up by diligently and exhaustively comparing notes with (Ann/Rush)'s people. Don't be swept up by Johnny fever, as we need to continue threatening to vote for Hillary as long as there's a small bit of hope for a Huckabee nomination. When that hope is doused, we'll be certain to jump off the Hillary bandwagon, in favor of spreading stories about the legendary back stage orgies that Obama and the Clintons host after each debate, and of course Hillary's traitorous actions while piloting wiki boats in Vietnam as corroborated by numerous highly-paid wiki boat vets."

Thursday, February 7, 2008

Obama campaign raises $7.2 million in 36 hours

On the heels of Hillary's announcement that she would like to raise $3 million in three days (I suppose to help pay herself back for the $5 million loan she gave herself), Barack's campaign announced this morning that it has raised $7.2 million since the polls closed on Tuesday night. Hillary's campaign has asked Barack's campaign for weekly debates, and would you please pick up the tab for the green room buffet. Barack's campaign would gladly pick up the buffet tab, but hemmed and hawed on the debate issue, as he staunchly believes that charity should be reserved for those struggling in the bottom 98% of the income bracket.

When asked to comment, Bill Gates indicated that he will make matching donations to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for all of the money that Barack collects. He went on to state that "Barack is a fund-raising machine. He is on pace to obliterate the campaign contribution records set by George Bush, and shortly thereafter will be able to buy and sell God. But, I have several orders of magnitude more money lying around in my underwear drawer that I can spare for a good cause, so I thought this was a good opportunity to distribute more of my freakish wealth."

Campaign finance reform mouthpiece John McCain stated that "it's unthinkable that someone could raise tens of millions of dollars, only to spend those dollars on an election. We've truly come to a place in this country where elections can be bought, and this scares me. If and when I buy the Presidency this November, I will make further campaign finance reform my first priority. And, you can help put me there by making a personal donation of up to $2,000 immediately. If we can raise an additional $40 million by March, this will put us above the $80 million mark and should go a long way in ensuring that we can compete with the Obama campaign and the $780 million budget that they're expected to have at that point. I thank my supporters for their deep pockets, and really wish I had rich & spendy Hollywood types supporting me, too."

Mitt was overheard on the phone with Johnny's campaign office, asking if he could have a bond to cover the bail he paid to free his own campaign this morning.

Mitt Romney suspends campaign

Upon receiving word that his campaign was arrested early Thursday morning on misdemeanor possession of alcohol by a minor, Mitt has suspended his campaign indefinitely. In a statement released earlier today, Mitt says that he has "already had a long talk about the incident with my campaign, and believe that my campaign is remorseful and will take the needed steps to reinstate itself into the Mitt team. I also believe that there are additional details at play that will come out eventually, so please don't read too much into the events of this morning until everything comes to light."

There is widespread Internet blogosphere speculation on the Googles that Johnny's campaign actually purchased the alcohol using a fake ID, and might have planted it in Mitt campaign's dorm room. Attempts to contact Johnny's campaign have been unsuccessful.

Mike's campaign, however, had this to say during an interview with Wolf Blitzer this morning: "This just further emphasizes the need for a return to true conservative values in America. Here we have two prominent national campaigns acting without regard for their candidates, teammates, and the laws of this country. I plan to send several text messages to my young, male page this afternoon, assuring him that Mike's campaign still believes in returning moral values to the youth of America, and to see if he wants to meet at my pad over in Georgetown tonight for some martinis and ............"

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Super Tuesday 2008: results against predictions

This will be a running tab of the results, as compared to my predictions.

Running tally:
Correct donkey picks/total called: 11/21^
Correct elephant picks/total called: 14/21*
*West Virginia is effectively a win for Johnny
^New Mexico has not been called

Alabama -
Predicted winners: Barack, Johnny
Actual winners: Barack, Mike
Commentary (7:44PM): Another southern victory for Barack.
Commentary (8:33PM): Mike is sure strong in the deep South. I should be more in tune with the Alabama voter.

Alaska -
Predicted winners: Hillary, Mitt
Actual winners: Barack, Mitt

Arizona -
Predicted winners: Barack, Johnny
Actual winners: Hillary, Johnny
Commentary (8:42PM): The Sun City contingent comes through again for Big Johnny.
Commentary (10:16PM): Another nice win for Hillary. It all comes down to California. Either way, the donkey race is still very much in play.

Arkansas -
Predicted winners: Hillary, Mike
Actual winners: Hillary, Mike
Commentary (7:38PM): It sure pays to have two home states, as the Clintons are finding out.
Commentary (7:45PM): Mike sorely needs a few more home states to claim.

California -
Predicted winners: Barack, Johnny
Actual winners: Hillary, Johnny
Commentary (10:26PM): Biggest single win of the night so far. Not the nail in the coffin for Barack, but the momentum stopper that Hillary needed, to be sure. Only thing bigger than this would be a Johnny win in Cali, as that would be the nail in the coffin.
Commentary (10:27PM): Oh, wait, Johnny got a win in Cali. Hammer meet nail meet Republican Presidential Nominee Johnny Mac.

Colorado -
Predicted winners: Barack, Johnny
Actual winners: Barack, Mitt

Connecticut -
Predicted winners: Hillary, Mitt
Actual winners: Barack, Johnny
Commentary (7:46PM): My first real incorrect pick (discounting the "fixed" West Virginia win for Johnny) on the elephant side comes in New England. Those enigmatic Connecticut republicans!!
Commentary (8:26PM): This win almost counters the New Jersey win for Hillary. California is enormous for Barack, but he should be able to retain relevance regardless of the outcome there. Those enigmatic Connecticut democrats!!

Delaware:
Predicted winners: Barack, Johnny
Actual winners: Barack, Johnny
Commentary (7:38PM): Johnny takes the every-important Delaware primary, with two a's and two e's.

Georgia -
Predicted winners: Barack, Johnny
Actual winners: Barack, Mike
Commentary (7:53PM): The question now becomes, does Barack have the potential to steal southern states in a general election? Doubtful, but Georgia seems as good a candidate as any.
Commentary (9:31PM): More love for Mikey in the South, and he likes it.

Idaho -
Predicted winners: Barack
Actual winners: Barack

Illinois -
Predicted winners: Barack, Johnny
Actual winners: Barack, Johnny
Commentary (7:55PM): Hillary could claim a third home state in any other election, but Barack-fever has overtaken this midwestern swing state and Barack solidly wins, as expected. Johnny has the big "mo".

Kansas -
Predicted winner: Barack
Actual winner: Barack

Massachusetts -
Predicted winners: Hillary, Mitt
Actual winners: Hillary, Mitt
Commentary (7:51PM): Paper tiger, is old Mass. Very predictable, here and in November. Mitt, home state or not, you'll be abandoned - of course, that's assuming you can even get to November, which you can't. At least not on top of a ticket.

Minnesota -
Predicted winners: Hillary, Johnny
Actual winners: Barack, Mitt
Commentary (8:34PM): Nice midwestern win for Barack. Never hurts to have the Mall of America constituents.
Commentary (9:29PM): Mitt's trying to hang in there. Not convinced that he can.

Missouri -
Predicted winners: Hillary, Johnny
Actual winners: Barack,
Johnny
Commentary (7:50AM): As the festivities wrapped up, it was clear that the day was a virtual tie between Hillary & Barack. My only real surprise was that Barack hadn't narrowed the California gap a little more - but Hillary has long had the edge there.

Montana -
Predicted winner: Johnny
Actual winner: Mitt
Commentary (10:17PM): An enormous, momentum-turning victory for Mitt in Big Sky country. I'm certain Mitt was prepared to concede, before hearing about the Montana result which surely spurred his confidence.

New Jersey -
Predicted winners: Barack, Johnny
Actual winners: Hillary, Johnny
Commentary (7:40PM): This is a big win for Johnny, in all seriousness. He has crazy momentum right now, and might end the Republican nominational race tonight.
Commentary (7:56PM): The win in New Jersey solidifies that tonight will not be disastrous for the former First Lady. A loss here could have signalled trouble ahead, but at worst she'll be in a dog-fight after tonight's outcomes. Holding on strong in the northeast, where mouthy broads reign supreme!

New Mexico -
Predicted winner: Barack
Actual winner: Barack leads currently, not called yet by CNN

New York -
Predicted winners: Hillary, Johnny
Actual winners: Hillary, Johnny
Commentary (7:40PM): Hillary won, as expected, in her other home state. Johnny gets another big one.

North Dakota -
Predicted winners: Hillary, Mitt
Actual winners: Barack, Mitt
Commentary (8:10PM): My first miss that goes towards the Barack camp. Somehow, I imagine New Jersey is more exciting to win than North Dakota.

Oklahoma -
Predicted winners: Barack, Johnny
Actual winners: Hillary, Johnny
Commentary (7:55PM): God help us if Hillary breaks out into Rodgers & Hammerstein fare!!

Tennessee -
Predicted winners: Barack, Johnny
Actual winners: Hillary, Mike
Commentary (7:42PM): Daddy's on a losing streak, underestimating the Senator from New York. Tennessee's a nice win.

Utah -
Predicted winners: Barack, Mitt
Actual winners: Barack, Mitt
Commentary (8:07PM): Shockingly, Utah is even more predictable than Massachusetts!

West Virginia -
Predicted winners: Johnny
Actual winners: Mike
Commentary (2:46 PM): Even though Mike "technically" won, and Johnny only received 1% of the vote, Johnny is the real winner in West Virginia as I expected all along. It was his supporters who pushed Mike over the top, and kept all of those critical West Virginia delegates from voting for Mitt.


Source:
CNN

Super Tuesday 2008: state by state analysis

Twenty-four states are holding a mixture of cauci and primaries today, holding the hopes of the remaining presidential candidates in the balance. I do realize that "cauci" is not actually a word, and that "caucuses" is the plural for "caucus" - but, "cauci" should be a word, and should be used more often in the mainstream media. I'm ahead of the curve, as usual.

Alabama Primaries -
A southern Democrat state since the 1860s, Alabama has more recently been wooed by the Republicans. But today, both parties are vying for the hearts and votes of Dixie, toward the ultimate goal of being the guy (or mouthy broad) who gets to follow George.
Winners: Barack & Johnny

Alaska Cauci -
39 of Alaska's 84 registered voters will gather with bait breath today, to hear who they're supposed to vote for at this summer's conventions. Alaska is really pretty irrelevant.
Winners: Hillary & Mitt

Arizona Primaries -
Winners: Barack & Johnny

Arkansas Primaries -
Stuttgart, Arkansas is known as the "Rice Capital of the World." I've been there, and can attest to the fact that it is a rice wonderland. So, we interviewed local rice farmer Jerry Dale Marvin about the upcoming primaries: "Arkansas is an enigma wrapped inside a riddle tucked in the corner of a rice paddy," he expounded. "If you talk to an average Arkansan, they'll tell you they can't stand those pretentious Clintons. Yet, when it comes time to vote, we can't wait to see our favored sons sit on the high thrown in Washington. This year is no different." No different, indeed, Jerry Dale.
Winners: Hillary & Mike

California Primaries -
California has more people than it knows what to do with, and most of them are at the In 'n Out in Barstow right now waiting to order.
Winners: Barack & Johnny

Colorado Cauci -
We're hoping to provide an up close and personal viewpoint from one Colorado Caucus.
Winners: Barack & Johnny

Connecticut Primaries -
No Yalies in this group, laments a saddened Connecticut populace.
Winners: Hillary & Mitt

Delaware Primaries -
This state has just two "e"s in its name.
Winners: Barack & Johnny

Georgia Primaries -
Winners: Barack & Johnny

Idaho Caucus -
Must appeal to the large Morman, potato-farming, and anti-government militia constituencies if you're going to carry the day in Idaho.
Winner: Barack

Illinois Primaries -
Winners: Barack & Johnny

Kansas Donkey Caucus -
Winner: Barack

Massachusetts Primaries -
Massachusetts voters will be out of luck, as the Diebold voting machines will head to the locker room with time remaining on the clock. When asked about possible vote contamination that may have led to Johnny's stunning defeat, they respond with an unenthusiastic "No."
Winners: Hillary & Mitt

Minnesota Cauci -
Winners: Hillary & Johnny

Missouri Primaries -
Winners: Hillary & Johnny

Montana Elephant Caucus -
Winner: Johnny

New Jersey Primaries -
In one of the more underrated primary contests, the large Garden State contingent comes out in full force and delivers the knockout blow for Barack & Johnny. Barack wins over the electorate by promising to rename the local football team from the inaccurate New York Giants to the geographically apt New Jersey Giants. Shameless, shameless politics.
Winners: Barack & Johnny

New Mexico Cauci -
Winner: Barack

New York Primaries -
In one of the more overrated primary contests, the large Manhattan State contingent comes out in full force and delivers the day's biggest victory for Hillary. Hillary wins over the electorate by promising the prevent the renaming of the New Jersey football team from the inaccurate New York Giants to geographically apt New Jersey Giants. More power to ya, Hill.
Winners: Hillary & Johnny

North Dakota Cauci -
Unable to unfreeze the voting machines, officials officially recognize the insignificance of North Dakota and flip a coin.
Winners: Hillary & Mitt

Oklahoma Primaries -
Upon gaining the victory in Oklahoma, Barack demonstrates his inherant rhythm and incredible vocal range by bellowing "Oooooooooo-klabama where the wind comes sweeping down the plain! Where the wavin' wheat can sure smell sweet when the wind comes right behind the raaaaiiiinnnn!!! Oklabamaaaaaaa O.K!!" O.K. indeed.
Winners: Barack & Johnny

Tennessee Primaries -
Winners: Barack & Johnny

Utah Primaries -
Nary a dry eye in the house, as Mitt concedes victory to Johnny, shortly after winning the Utah Primary. Technically, Mitt won both primaries, but was disqualified when it was learned that he was not officially on the donkeys' ballot, much to the chagrin of all seven Utah Democrats and several Osmonds.
Winners: Barack & Mitt

West Virginia Elephant Primary Part I -
No sitting president has visited West Virginia since 1893.
Winner: Johnny

As you have probably surmised, today's big winners will be Johnny & Barack. Johnny actually nails down the elephant nomination, as Mitt will concede within the next four days. Barack has a strong showing as well, particularly with his surprise victory in California. It's not enough to seal the victory, as Hillary could go from favorite-to-underdog-to-comeback kid. We shall see.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Handicapping the 2008 election

We periodically enjoy handicapping the election. Now seems like as good a time as ever to get it started, as we're less than a week away from "Super Tuesday!" Below, you'll see a variety of numbers and words, followed by a really cool map. If you really like the maps, please offer me a six-figure salaried job and I'll then tell your lies and truth stretchings with high quality map products.

note: we have narrowed the field down to viable candidates Hillary, Barack, Johnny, and Mitt

Likelihood of each candidate to reach the general election:
Johnny - 80%
Barack - 60%
Hillary - 40%
Mitt - 20%

Likelihood of each candidate to beat each potential general election opponent:
Johnny over Hillary - 75% (25%)
Barack over Johnny - 85% (15%)
Barack over Mitt - 90% (10%)
Hillary vs. Mitt - 50% (50%)

Likelihood that each candidate will be elected in November:
Barack - 51.6%
Johnny - 31.2%
Hillary - 12.0%
Mitt - 5.2%

Proposed betting odds* for each candidate:
Barack - 1:1
Johnny - 3:1
Hillary - 7:1
Mitt - 20:1
* This is not an actual betting opportunity, as we have no money to back it up

The following map and associated Electoral College projections are based on the numbers above, accounting for the various combinations. It simply shows the projected party that each state will align with. I don't consider Nebraska or Maine real states, so their split votes are being ignored.


Associated Electoral College votes:
Democratic Candidate - 248 (19 states, one district)
Republican Candidate - 216 (24 states)
Too close to project - 74 (7 states)
Electoral College votes needed to win - 270

Projected "swing" states:
Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio

Friday, January 18, 2008

A preview of South Carolina

I don't mean to suggest that the Nevada Caucus is unimportant, but the South Carolina Primary is important, which I can't say about the Nevada Caucus. So important, I declare, that the winners are highly likely to face off in November. I don't like to waste your time, so here goes.

1. South Carolina Primary - Elephants
I'm clueless. I can't read the people of South Carolina, which is kinda ironic. But, what I know is this: Ken Huckabee is a lock to lead the South Carolina Primary until the 11th hour. At the 11th hour, as Rudy and Mitt enjoy a burlesque show together in Vegas, Huckabee will watch in a helpless stupor as the Diebolds take a huge swing westward. Johnny snatches victory from the jaws of irrelevance, and leaves South Carolina with an enormous weekend sweep of the South Carolina Primary and the New Mexico Caucuses.



2. South Carolina Primary - Donkeys
Much more interesting than the baby elephant walk the Saturday before, Columbia will be enthralled by the goings on in the donkey primary. Will the South Carolina people support a mouthy broad? What about a sorta black dude? Or, a short, politically irrelevant guy? Or, will they stick with my first instinct and go with John E. from the cooler Carolina? As the day unfolds, it is clear that this one is going down to the wire. The second weekend of the tournament is clearly going to be more interesting than the first. John E. generally holds small leads throughout, while Hillary and Barack duke it out to see if either can challenge him. As the day winds down, it becomes apparent that Edwards is the soup du jour, and that Barack will leave with a solid #2 finish. Until Hillary pulls up from the top of the key and her shot nestles into the net. On the subsequent possession, Barack trips over Dennis while trying to pass the ball up court to John E., and Hillary takes it away - along with the lead, as her three pointer from the elbow bounces off the rim, the backboard, and the rim again before falling through. She ices the game from the free throw line, and ends up with a strong 13 point victory in South Carolina. Let the inauguration planning commence.

A preview of Nevada

As most of my readership already knows, I have a remarkable historic track record of accurately projecting primary and caucus results. When the talking heads are talking, I'm sitting back watching the proceedings aghast, hoping none of it is true, but knowing that it really is because I indeed foretold it.

In fact, I have been dubbed the "
Joe Lunardi of Presidential Primary Madness." In the spirit of that dubbing, I have created "game trackers" for this weekend's South Carolina primary and Nevada caucus. You'll see in them shifts in momentum, underdogs giving favorites a run for their money, and you'll know exactly when Hillary hits those back-to-back three pointers to put the proverbial nail in the South Carolina coffin. But, we'll start with Nevada.

1. Nevada Caucus - Elephants
Early Vegas
betting lines have Rudy and Mitt neck and neck in the race. Early Vegas betting lines don't play the games though, and as you'll see, Rudy quickly is exposed for the fraud 4 seed that he is. Underdog Ken Huckabee actually plays him closely for much of the day, before breaking away to steal third place by two percentage points. More fascinating is the race between Mitt and Johnny. Mitt, with his enormous size advantage, jumps out to an early lead on the strength of his post play. As the day wears on, however, political elite underdog favorite Johnny starts to assert himself, and makes one final push to steal the day with 27% of the vote. Caucus members look cross-eyed at each other, trying to figure out what exactly happened, but they begrudgingly cross Mitt's name off their brackets and replace him with Johnny.


Nevada Caucus - Donkeys:
Pundits have spent all week predicting a dominating performance by Hillary in the Nevada Caucuses. As stated by one pundit, "Hillary has the size advantage down low, the experience factor on her side, and a quick first step that leaves opponents shaking their heads. However, if she happens to lose, don't be surprised to see her over on the sideline with her jersey pulled over her head, hurting for our loss, of course." I suppose Barack is the dark-horse here, or dark-donkey as it were. Is that politically incorrect? Probably. Can I retract that last statement? Barack is the underdog in Nevada, while Dennis is playing in the play-in game to decide who gets crushed by North Carolina on Thursday night ... ahem, I mean, John E., of course. Well, this day does not go according to the script. Barack jumps out to an early, solid lead. Hillary struggles to keep it close, throwing up desperation mascara run after desperation mascara run. At 5:00 in the afternoon, ABC News briefly calls the race for Barack, and reports that Hillary will shortly make a concession speech in which she drops out of the race. Surprisingly, this information is quickly discredited - yet, Obama retains his lead and wins by a comfortable 12 point margin, having put the scrubs in to finish the job.


If you think the action was heated in the Nevada Pod, wait until you see what happens in South Carolina!!